Do you believe you are involved in something extremely significant as you are dealing with XML? I believe XML may prove as significant to the industry at large as any other major invention in the history of humankind.

Simple concepts win

Great inventions don't have to look difficult to be great. As a matter of fact, most breakthrough inventions are great because of their extreme simplicity and broad appeal.

And most great inventions take time to be implemented. However, as a rule, we always overestimate an invention in the short term, and always underestimate the impact of such technologies in the long term. I think XML is such a technology. As some of the hype around XML subsides, people will underestimate how fundamental XML will change the way we store, publish and exchange information in the next decade.

How things develop

For example, the ancient Mayas already knew of the wheel, but did not have horses to make horse-drawn carriages. The Chinese knew about steam power about 2000 years ago, but only used it to raise the throne of the emperor during coronation ceremonies. When the telephone was invented, the then US president said: "I think the telephone is great, I can see a time when every town will have one." Now there are nearly twice as many mobile telephones as there are personal computers. 

When Edison invented the modern light bulb, did he think about the Hoover dam? When Stephenson invented the first steam locomotive, could he even imagine a bullet train? When the Wright brothers flew on the beaches of North Carolina, did they ponder frequent flier miles? 

As much as gasoline was the killer application for the oil barons of Texas and the Middle East, XML will be the killer application for software developers that want to deliver rich, personalized content to the growing community of online citizens. XML technology will go a similar route to the examples above. Those that fail to act on the XML shockwave now will get steamrolled later.

"I", not "ME"

At this point in time, we are still being bombarded with new products that start with the letter "E", and increasingly, with the letter "M" for mobile. Well, these terms still miss the point. Those of us that are dealing with software are not dealing with electrons or with mobile devices as such. These are just technical details. The point is the letter "I". 

"I" for Information. Information as in data that has context and meaning, that enables normal people to make decisions and to create value in the new economy. All the electrons and mobile devices in the world will not create value unless people can understand the information that is being provided to them. And XML is the key technology to make information understandable. And to make the Internet truly useful in the economic domain.

XML is the enabler for the information economy. Those of you that are writing applications in native XML will be the leaders of this new stage of software development. When we look back to this time 20 years from now, we will not remember the year 2000 as the year of catastrophic computer failures, but as the year in which the Internet became truly useful through the use of XML technologies.

Write me and tell me what you think. 

1. How significant is XML to the industry?

a. Fundamental revolution in the way people build software
b. Major change in tools, databases and middleware architecture
c. Only changes the interfaces, not the implementation of systems

2. When will the XML shockwave hit?

a. It's in progress
b. 3 - 6 months
c. After Q1 2001

3. When will you roll out the first commercial XML application?

a. Done
b. Next 3 to 6 months
c. After Q1 2001