 The
Future of XML
An inteview with Dr. Anthony Picardi, Senior Vice
President of Global Software at IDC
Dr. Anthony C.Picardi heads Worldwide Software
Research at IDC. He is responsible for the quality of IDC software
studies on topics including application development, infrastructure
software, Java, Internet software and software in Europe. Dr. Picardi has
published studies on many different segments of the software market and
is a regular speaker at IT events. He has 23 years of experience in the
software market including an Sc.D. from MIT (Massachusetts Institute of
Technology).
XMLshockwave.com:
In recent months, new types of databases have entered the market,
for example those using XML. How will this market segment develop?
Dr. Picardi:
First, let me first explain why our analysis of the market made
us decide to add a fourth category to the three traditional database
sectors. The technologies that dominate the market today —prerelational
and relational —manage traditional data types by their numbers and
text, regardless of their content. With the market entry of XML
databases, we have something completely new: products that can manage
and process "smart data," by which we mean self-describing
data. This has only been possible since the implementation of XML
technology —a development that was absolutely necessary, in our
opinion. We expect this young market segment to expand at an explosive
rate and forecast market volume growth from US $12 million in 1999 to
more than US $700 million in four years. This would represent an
annual growth rate of about 130 percent per year until 2004.
XMLShockwave.com:
XML technology has only just begun to be implemented in
products. At what stage of development are we today?
Dr. Picardi:
Currently we are in the early-adopters phase. However,
there is one major difference with respect to the many other new
technologies entering the market: Everybody has heard of XML and knows
how important it is. IT decision makers in every enterprise, managers
and engineers alike, know that they cannot ignore XML. So we’ve been
through the "evangelism stage." The number of users will soon
begin to increase dramatically.
XMLShockwave.com:
In your opinion, who are the most important vendors of XML
databases?
Dr. Picardi:
In Europe, it’s Software AG and in the US, it's eXcelon.
Other software vendors like IBM, Oracle and Sybase would like to
position themselves in this market. But this wouldn’t make sense in
our opinion, as these three companies ’databases cannot store or
process XML data natively. This makes a critical difference when it
comes to application performance. As long as you ’re just storing
data, the difference isn’t that great. But if data has to be processed
as well, the choice to use a native XML database is extremely logical,
particularly considering the speed issue.
XMLShockwave.com:
What does the future hold? Will XML push out the other
technologies?
Dr. Picardi:
No, that is unlikely. The new XML technology complements
existing ones and will not completely push them out of the market. Each
of these technologies is well-founded, which is why we can expect a
highly segmented market. For storing text and numbers, relational
systems are recommended now and will continue to be in the future. If
communication and processing are the priorities, XML is the technology
of choice. Its major advantage is that it eases data integration
incredibly. All programs which use this standard can exchange data
easily. Up to now, there has been no other comparable development. Every
application has used its own proprietary data formats. Hopefully, XML
will bring an end to that.
XMLShockwave.com:
Which applications or which vertical markets will be the
strongest drivers of XML?
Dr. Picardi:
Currently, data integration is XML’s greatest accelerator.
That means the individual applications within this sector that are
already able to exchange data, multimedia data, with other applications.
So the first broad-scale users of XML will come from the multimedia
industry: graphic and design firms, the film and music industry, the
CAD/CAM sector and design automation, to name just a few. The
second-most important driver of XML will be the integration of supply
chains with external applications and data. For the success of public
marketplaces on the Internet and electronic business processes between
suppliers and their customers, data has to be exchanged reliably and
securely based on recognized standards. There is currently no
alternative to XML for these purposes, nor will there be in the near
future. The third-greatest driving factor of XML is internal data
integration within organizations. But this will take a while, because it
still isn’t a priority for many companies today and, in our opinion,
isn’t being pushed with the necessary force. Every department uses its
own formats, so the transition to a uniform standard isn’t as easy as
establishing new external relationships.
XMLShockwave.com:
How do you see Software AG at present? Can it expand its position
in this market? What still needs to be done?
Dr. Picardi:
Software AG has undoubtedly made the right move with its complete
line of XML products — Tamino, EntireX and Bolero —and therefore
has put itself in an excellent technological position. Adding two
products designed specifically with XML in mind, X-Studio and
X-Bridge, fits in well with its strategy. Software AG is now facing
the difficult task, though, of implementing its XML strategy. It has
to intensify its marketing activities in the US — the largest IT
market in the world —if it wants to quickly lay a broad foundation
for its XML products there. But I don ’t see any reason why this
shouldn’t happen.
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